Friday, September 2, 2011

Musing on the Arab Spring


Prague Spring. If you don't remember the uprising in Czechoslovaka in 1968 (or perhaps you don't remember Czechoslovaka at all - now the Czech Republic and Slovakia), then I will remind you that it failed. It failed just as the Hungarian revolution of 1956 failed and for the same reason: no support from the West.

It is easier for the West to support the Arab Spring because there is no threat of thermonuclear war from a Warsaw Pact. Honeslty up until Libya, all we really had to do was for the Arab Spring to work its magic was support Twitter. The alleged "no fly" zone policy in Libya was a farce as it quickly turned into an all out air assault on the minions of a dictator who was only a bit less stupid and somewhat less cruel that Idi Amin Dada (Ghadafi made colonel while Amin only made corporal after all).

I have no problem with air assaulting Libyan military assets to hell and further if for no other reason than it is a lovely piece of irony given Libya's air assault over Lockerbie, Scotland. The spineless Scots paroled the assassin for medical reasons a couple of years back, but kharma did a number on Libya anyway.

The case to watch now is Syria, the longtime strongman of the Middle East. Assad -- the kinder, gentler son -- has been stiffening his resistance to change after seeing how Mubarak is being treated in Egypt. Mubarak deserves better, Ghadafi deserve worse, but Assad's fate is something to watch closely, especially if you happen to be governing in a nearby kingdom or emirate.

It took 20 years, but the former Czechoslovakia gained freedom and a measure of prosperity. I think the Arab states are moving at a faster pace, but hopefully not too fast to be stable.

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